Federal Electoral Riding Redistribution – Proposed Northern Ontario Boundaries
CLICK to enlarge; from www.federal-redistribution.ca
Parliament has determined that Ontario should have 15 additional electoral districts, raising the total number of electoral districts in the province from 106 to 121. When readjusting electoral boundaries, the Commission is required to apply the principles contained in the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act. The Act directs the Commission to ensure that the population in each electoral district shall, as closely as reasonably possible, correspond to the electoral quota for the province. The quota for electoral districts in Ontario is 106,213, which is established by dividing the census population by the number of electoral districts assigned to the province.
The Act permits the Commission to depart from the quota where necessary or desirable in order to:
- respect the community of interest or community of identity in, or the historical pattern of an electoral district in the province, or
- maintain a manageable geographic size for electoral districts in sparsely populated, rural or northern regions of the province.
When considering these factors, the Commission must make every effort to ensure that, except in circumstances it views as extraordinary, the population of each electoral district in the province remains within 25% (plus or minus) of the electoral quota. The upper limit of deviation from the quota is 132,766, and the lower limit of deviation from the quota is 79,660.
The remainder of this proposal outlines changes and gives narrative descriptions of all proposed electoral districts. Schedule A contains two tables with the names of the current and proposed electoral districts, their populations and their variance from the provincial quota. Schedule B contains legal descriptions and maps of the proposed electoral districts.
Overall Approach
Population shifts and increases, efforts to honour existing municipal boundaries whenever possible, and the establishment of 15 new electoral districts have required substantial adjustment to Ontario’s electoral map.
Although the Commission preferred to retain current electoral boundaries where possible, it could not always accomplish this. No one electoral district can be considered in isolation from the others immediately surrounding it. Any change to one boundary has an inherent effect on at least one adjoining electoral district. The Commission endeavoured to respect existing municipal boundaries whenever possible. However, in some instances, the location and density of population growth required the Commission to establish electoral districts that crossed municipal boundaries.
Proposals for an electoral district are not acceptable merely on the basis that they are within the allowable 25% variance from the quota. The primary consideration in the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act is that the population of each electoral district in the province be as close to the provincial quota as is reasonably possible. If an electoral district contains a population that is significantly larger than the quota, it is underrepresented. Similarly, an electoral district with a significantly smaller population is overrepresented. However, the principle of representation by population cannot be perfectly implemented. It is virtually impossible to establish an electoral map for 121 electoral districts of equal population that reflects existing municipal boundaries, that recognizes the distinctions between urban, rural and remote communities, and that takes into account community of interest or identity, and historical attachment.
The primary population trends in the past decade have been an increase in Southern Ontario, especially in the area surrounding the City of Toronto, and a slight decrease in Northern Ontario. According to the 2011 Census, 24 electoral districts currently exceed the allowable 25% variance from the quota. Two electoral districts have populations below the minimum allowable variance from the quota, and 22 electoral districts have populations in excess of the maximum allowable variance. These electoral districts vary in size from 55,977 (Kenora, which is substantially overrepresented at 47.30% below the provincial quota) to 228,997 (Oak Ridges—Markham, which is seriously underrepresented at 115.60% above the quota).
In addition to readjusting the boundaries of many electoral districts, the Commission created 15 new electoral districts to conform to the number assigned to the province. The new electoral districts are located in the following areas: Brampton (2), Cambridge, Durham (2), Hamilton, Markham (2), Mississauga, Oakville, Ottawa, Simcoe, Toronto (2) and York.
Unless stated otherwise, all population numbers below refer to the proposed electoral districts.
NORTHERN ONTARIO
The southern boundary of the region of the province commonly known as Northern Ontario is defined by a line running from Georgian Bay in the west to the Ottawa River in the east, along the southern boundaries of the current electoral districts of Parry Sound—Muskoka and Nipissing—Timiskaming.
The Province of Ontario occupies a landmass of 1,067,259 square kilometres. Northern Ontario occupies a landmass of 939,870 square kilometres, or 87.77% of the total area of the province. Southern Ontario occupies 127,389 square kilometres, or 12.23% of the total area of the province.
The 2011 Census confirmed the continuing trend of declining population in Northern Ontario and of rapid urban growth in Southern Ontario. The population of the region has decreased slightly from 838,812 in 2001 to 832,014 in 2011.
Northern Ontario currently has 10 electoral districts. If the determination of electoral districts for Northern Ontario were based solely on the principle of representation by population according to the quota, the region would be allocated only eight electoral districts, a decrease of two.
The Commission is not prepared to enforce strict adherence to that method of assigning electoral districts. Given the vast area of the region, the Commission believes that a minimum of 10 electoral districts is required in order for citizens of Northern Ontario to have effective representation. The Commission is of the view that it is reasonable to have 10 electoral districts for close to 88% of the area of the province, particularly when there remain 111 electoral districts to assign to the rest of the province. This decision is consistent with the provisions of the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, which permit the Commission to look beyond the principle of representation by population to consider manageable geographic size for sparsely populated, rural or northern regions.
The previous commission invoked the extraordinary circumstances provision for the current electoral district of Kenora because its population fell substantially below the maximum allowable variance of 25% from the provincial quota. In doing so, the previous commission was able to establish boundaries for the remaining nine electoral districts in Northern Ontario with populations that fell within the allowable variance of 25% below the provincial quota.
This Commission received numerous submissions from throughout the region. Some advocated at a minimum to maintain the status quo. Others advocated an increase in the number of electoral districts assigned to Northern Ontario by establishing a separate and smaller population quota, or by making wider use of the extraordinary circumstances provision to ignore the lower limit of variance from the quota.
Although the Commission is independent, it is nevertheless a creature of statute and is governed by the provisions of the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act. The Commission does not legislate, nor is it entitled to ignore the provisions of the legislation by which it is governed. The Commission is of the view that it cannot establish a lower population quota for Northern Ontario, nor can it make widespread use of the extraordinary circumstances provision to circumvent the provincial population quota because those provisions are by definition “extraordinary”. Any changes to the legislation are matters for Parliament to determine.
It is the Commission’s decision that, given the geographic size and relatively sparse population of the electoral district of Kenora, there are reasonable grounds to apply the extraordinary circumstances provision of the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act to that electoral district. There is sufficient population in the balance of Northern Ontario to create nine electoral districts, each of which falls within the maximum allowable variance of 25% below the quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of KENORA be comprised of the current electoral district, whose population is substantially below the maximum negative variance from the provincial quota, plus that portion added by extending the southerly boundary of the electoral district to include the Township of Lake of the Woods. There are a number of First Nation communities within that township. The Commission believes their community of interest is more closely tied to Kenora than to Thunder Bay. It has a population of 56,641 and is 46.67% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of THUNDER BAY—RAINY RIVER be comprised of the current electoral district, less the Township of Lake of the Woods, which has been added to the proposed electoral district of Kenora. It has a population of 82,320 and is 22.50% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of THUNDER BAY—SUPERIOR NORTH be comprised of the current electoral district, plus the westerly portion of the current electoral district of Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing. This includes the Township of Manitouwadge, which claims to have a closer community of interest with Thunder Bay. It has a population of 83,126 and is 21.74% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing be renamedALGOMA—MANITOULIN—KILLARNEY. It is comprised of the current electoral district, adjusted as follows: less the westerly portion assigned to the proposed electoral district of Thunder Bay—Superior North; less that portion of the Highway No. 11 West corridor lying north of Algoma, Unorganized, North Part assigned to the proposed electoral district of Timmins—Cochrane—James Bay (because the community of interest of the communities along that highway is more closely connected to that proposed electoral district); plus a portion of Sudbury, Unorganized, North Part; plus a portion of the current electoral district of Nickel Belt lying south and east of the current electoral district of Sudbury, from the community of Coniston in the north to the Municipality of Killarney in the south, including the western portion of the Municipality of French River; plus a portion of the current electoral district of Sudbury lying west of the community of Copper Cliff. It has a population of 79,708 and is 24.95% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of SAULT STE. MARIE remain unchanged. It has a population of 88,869 and is 16.33% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of Timmins—James Bay be renamed TIMMINS—COCHRANE—JAMES BAY and that its boundaries be extended south to the northerly boundary of Algoma, Unorganized, North Part, including the Highway No. 11 West corridor from the Town of Smooth Rock Falls to west of the Town of Hearst. The Commission further proposes to remove that portion of the current electoral district lying west and south of the Town of Kirkland Lake, up to the northerly boundaries of Sudbury, Unorganized, North Part and of the current electoral district of Nipissing—Timiskaming, and assign it to the proposed electoral district of Nickel Belt—Timiskaming. It has a population of 93,918 and is 11.58% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of SUDBURY be comprised of the current electoral district, less that portion lying west of the community of Copper Cliff assigned to the proposed electoral district of Algoma—Manitoulin—Killarney, plus a portion of the current electoral district of Nickel Belt lying north of the Highway No. 17 bypass. It has a population of 85,263 and is 19.72% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of Nickel Belt be renamed NICKEL BELT—TIMISKAMING and that its boundaries be readjusted as follows: by assigning to the proposed electoral district of Algoma—Manitoulin—Killarney a portion of Sudbury, Unorganized, North Part and parts of Greater Sudbury lying south of Highway No. 17, including the community of Coniston, part of Sudbury, Unorganized, North Part, part of the Municipality of French River, and all of the Municipality of Killarney; by assigning a portion of Nipissing First Nation lying along the shore of Lake Nipissing to the proposed electoral district of Nipissing; by adding that portion of the current electoral district of Timmins—James Bay lying west and south of the Town of Kirkland Lake as described above; and by adding that portion of the current electoral district of Nipissing—Timiskaming lying north of the intersection of Highways No. 11 and 64. This creates an electoral district with a significant community of interest in agriculture and language. It has a population of 93,707 and is 11.77% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of Nipissing—Timiskaming return to its former name ofNIPISSING and that its boundaries be adjusted by assigning that portion of the electoral district lying north of the intersection of Highways No. 11 and 64 to the proposed electoral district of Nickel Belt—Timiskaming, and by adding that portion of Nipissing First Nation that is in the current electoral district of Nickel Belt. Also added are portions of the current electoral district of Parry Sound—Muskoka, including: a portion of Parry Sound, Unorganized, North East Part; the townships of Machar, Strong and Joly; the villages of South River and Sundridge; and the northeast portion of Parry Sound, Unorganized, Centre Part east of a line drawn south from the southerly boundary of Dokis First Nation to the southerly limit of Parry Sound, Unorganized, Centre Part. It has a population of 83,821 and is 21.08% below the provincial quota.
The Commission proposes that the electoral district of PARRY SOUND—MUSKOKA be comprised of the current electoral district, less the northeast portion assigned to the proposed electoral district of Nipissing. It has a population of 84,641 and is 20.31% below the provincial quota.
Thunder Bay—Superior North – Proposed Boundaries
(Population: 83,126)
Consisting of that part of the Territorial District of Thunder Bay lying easterly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the northerly limit of said territorial district with a line running due north from the northeast corner of the geographic Township of Bulmer; thence due south to the northeast corner of said geographic township; thence southerly along the easterly boundary of the geographic townships of Bulmer, Fletcher, Furlonge, McLaurin and Bertrand to the 6th Base Line; thence easterly along said base line to longitude 90°00’W; thence southerly along said longitude to its most southerly intersection with the Dog River; thence generally southerly along said river and the westerly shoreline of Dog Lake to the northerly boundary of the geographic Township of Fowler; thence westerly, southerly and easterly along the northerly, westerly and southerly boundaries of said geographic township to the Kaministiquia River; thence generally southerly along said river to the northerly limit of the Municipality of Oliver Paipoonge; thence easterly and southerly along the northerly and easterly limits of said municipality to Pole Line Road; thence easterly along said road and its production to the Trans-Canada Highway (Highway No. 11, Highway No. 17); thence easterly along said highway, Harbour Expressway, Main Street and its easterly production to the easterly limit of the City of Thunder Bay; thence southwesterly, easterly and southerly along said limit to the northeast corner of the Municipality of Neebing situated easterly of Welcome Islands; thence S45°00’E to the international boundary between Canada and the United States of America.
Algoma—Manitoulin—Killarney – Proposed Boundaries
(Population: 79,708)
Consisting of:
- (a) that part of the Territorial District of Algoma comprised of:
- (i) that part lying easterly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the international boundary between Canada and the United States of America with the southeast corner of the Township of Plummer Additional; thence northerly and westerly along the easterly and northerly boundaries of said township to the southwest corner of the geographic Township of Galbraith; thence northerly along the westerly boundary of the geographic townships of Galbraith, Morin, Kane, Hurlburt, Jollineau, Menard, Pine, Hoffman and Butcher to the southerly limit of the Territorial District of Sudbury;
- (ii) that part lying northerly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the westerly limit of the Territorial District of Sudbury with the Montreal River; thence generally westerly along said river to the northerly boundary of the geographic Township of Home; thence westerly along the northerly boundary of the geographic townships of Home and Peever to the northern shoreline of Lake Superior; thence S45°00’W to the international boundary between Canada and the United States of America;
- (b) the Territorial District of Manitoulin;
- (c) that part of the Territorial District of Timiskaming lying westerly of the easterly boundary of the geographic townships of Douglas and Geikie;
- (d) that part of the Territorial District of Sudbury lying westerly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the easterly limit of said territorial district with the northeast corner of the geographic Township of Unwin; thence southerly along the easterly boundary of the geographic townships of Unwin, Leask, McNamara, Beaumont and Roberts to the northerly limit of the City of Greater Sudbury; thence generally easterly and generally southerly along the northerly and easterly limits of said city to the northwesterly boundary of the geographic Township of Hendrie; thence easterly along said geographic township to the westerly boundary of the geographic Township of Jennings; thence southerly along the westerly boundary of the geographic townships of Jennings, Cherriman and Cosby to the North Channel (French River); thence generally southerly along said channel, passing westerly of the islands adjacent to Gibraltar Rock and Murdock River, to the junction of Murdock River with the Territorial District of Parry Sound; and
- (e) that part of the City of Greater Sudbury lying southerly and westerly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the easterly limit of said city with Highway No. 17 East; thence westerly along said highway to the west boundary of Lot 6 of the geographic Township of Neelon; thence southerly along Lot 6 of the geographic townships of Neelon and Dill to Highway No. 69; thence westerly along said highway to Highway No. 17; thence westerly along said highway to the easterly boundary of the geographic Township of Waters; thence northerly along said boundary to Kelly Lake; thence northerly in a straight line to the easterly boundary of the geographic Township of Waters; thence northerly and westerly along the easterly and northerly boundaries of said geographic township to the westerly boundary of Lot 1 of the geographic Township of Snider; thence northerly along said boundary to the northerly boundary of Concession 2 of the geographic Township of Snider; thence easterly along said boundary to the easterly boundary of the geographic Township of Snider; thence northerly along said boundary to the southerly boundary of the geographic Township of Rayside; thence westerly along the southerly boundary of the geographic townships of Rayside and Balfour to the westerly boundary of the geographic Township of Balfour; thence northerly along said boundary to Simmons Road; thence westerly along said road to Gordon Lake Road; thence northerly in a straight line to the easterly intersection of Pioneer Road with Highway No. 144; thence northerly in a straight line to the intersection of Morgan Road with Blais Road; thence northerly along Morgan Road to the westerly boundary of the geographic Township of Balfour; thence northerly and easterly along the easterly and northerly boundaries of said geographic township to the westerly boundary of the geographic Township of Lumsden; thence northerly along the westerly boundary of the geographic townships of Lumsden and Bowell to the northerly limit of the City of Greater Sudbury.
